Are we viewing a US recovery??
The headlines are coming in…for the past few weeks or months..the United States of America is heading into a recovery. I take a different perspective on this view…especially when it is transmitted from Us Weekly via “mainstream media”.
Yes…we cannot deny the facts from a “numerical perspective” that Us Job Data i.e. GDP, Retail Sales…at times Us Initial Jobless Claims or even Non-Farm Payroll have shown some positive output Us Payrolls & Us Job Growth. We need to reflect back on what is generating these numbers…are the Us Jobless Report “fudged” as some analysts state…or is it a true reflection of an economy “coming out of it’s cave”?
The key indicator that will provide more tangible results ..I would review the Long-Term NET TIC flows data. This relevant data is rarely viewed as a true indicator in the markets and by most traders. Why it is relevant ..it reveals the money inflows and outflows. In the past..another indicator of money creation was the “money supply”..now this indicator has disappeared..I wonder why? Could it be…the more transparent the “digital printing” continues…the more we see the reality of the U.S. “print to infinity model”.
Long-Term NET TIC flows reveals money brought into the US ..and then…a large number flowing out. It is similar to using this analogy…”your provided $10 to spend…you then spend the full amount and then use your credit card to spend another $100″. Are you generating wealth or creating more debt??? The FED is not example to our future, especially the youth on how to preserve wealth…more so how to eliminate weath..increasing your debt with their monetary strategies.
Regardless of how we assess the numbers…the true reality is…emerging markets are affected by the overflow of USD…and hyperinflation is amongst us in today’s economic scenario. Will Japan, Europe, China or US prevail?